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Cake day: June 25th, 2023

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  • They made hundreds and 16 worked (when synthesized by humans), seems stochastic to me. Humans do better to my knowledge (I’m out of touch but do have a relevant background). It’s based on LLM architecture (using genes and proteins in place of language), also known as a stochastic parrot, which was the sense in which I was using it.

    I don’t deny it’s a scary technology, more because of the likelihood of mistakes (or as AI companies like to say, ‘hallucinations’, anthropomorphising as advertising) than any intention.

    As usual with this type of technology you need to be competent with the field before it becomes a force multiplier, and those people could already make viruses, and have been able to for a long time. For example, one of the previous stochastic methods was randomized mutation in a specific environment.



  • We’ve been living with the human capability to make and deliver super lethal viruses for what 40+ years and have methods in place to control it at the manufacturing level. ‘genAI’ is way too incompetent at this stage to achieve both a functional virus and evade those manufacturing safeguards and likely LLMs always will be, too stochastic. This is quite aligned to look how scary our AI is marketing.

    That said, virus is one of the studied extinction event scenarios for a true AGI/ASI. It would be prudent to double down on the manufacturing security, or, you know, go Butlerian at least until we have an excellent grasp on alignment (IMO you can’t align an ASI, it’s literally beyond our comprehension). But capitalism’s gonna capitalist, existential threat be damned, just look at global warming.






  • Thing is, most of those data centers and video GPGPUs are dark and will likely stay so. The cards will be obsolete by the time the centers are built, the power sourced, they’ve been sued and injunctioned etc., etc. . (reminiscent of all that dark fiber left after the OG internet bubble pop)

    The RAMpocalypse is mostly market manipulation courtesy of SamA grabbing 40% of global supply (of wafers, not even chips yet) from two of the three memory companies on the same day. In a better (the old) world he’d have been put in jail for this and fraud already.

    Which is to say, the demand is mostly fictional and FOMO and the big three memory companies are leaning hard into it because profit, and, the price never comes all the way back down, also a win for them. They make huge profit (hence making 5 year price fix deals with stupid people) until the Chinese companies ramp up production and the game ends. The actual RAM may or may not actually end up used, depending on when the bubble pops and what happens after.

    Just rampant greed doing what it does, SNAFU.




  • Yup, there’s a cycle between centralization and edge. Started with centralization, mainframes, went edge with the first PCs (and game consoles) and ever since corpos have been trying to pull it back to the center in waves. Thin client, cloud compute, arguably phones (as apps processing in the cloud), Geforce Now, AI. So far it’s always gone back to the edge for most of the population, except for niche cases (or not in the case of phones). As internet gets faster and more reliable the chance of it sticking longer in the central zone increases (IMO).